With Tesla and other proponents of alternative energy-powered vehicles constantly in the news, it’s easy think the demise of the oil change might be imminent. While oil and gas use may reach a peak and then begin to very slowly wane at some time in the future, that tipping point will be, as far as we can tell, somewhere around the year 2040 (22 years from now). Even then, the use of fossil fuels will continue – it’s just that the world‘s appetite for this resource may very gradually, slowly start to diminish. Consider the following information about oil changes, electric cars and other topics that comes from a wide variety of sources – you’ll see conflicting opinions, but it is possible to get a general sense of where things are headed.
Statista.com is one of the most prominent data sources. Their 2018 chart of U.S. electric vehicle market share shows that the electric vehicle share of the US market was only about 1% in 2017. They project a 2% share for 2018, growing to a 14% share of the market by 2025. According to this source, therefore, 86% of the US vehicle market in 2025 will still be non-electric.
Here’s a link to the chart:
Next, here’s a quote from The Economist, 11/26/16 (admittedly an older source):
“Analysts who think that the Paris accords will mark a turning point in global efforts to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions say global oil consumption could start to wane as early as the 2020s.
Yet many in the industry continue to dismiss talk of peak demand. They do not believe that governments have the political will to implement their climate goals at anything like the speed the Paris agreement envisages. In America they ridicule the idea that a nation built around the automobile can swiftly abandon petrol. And Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, estimates that the world will still need to invest in oil to the tune of almost $1trn [that’s trillion] a year for the next 25 years. Oil veterans point out that even if global oil consumption were to peak, the world would still need to replace existing wells, which deplete every year at the rate of up to 5m b/d [5 million barrels a day] — roughly the amount added by America’s shale revolution in four years. Demand will not suddenly fall off a cliff.”
Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles Mopar parts and service division now maintains more than 1,850 Express Lane locations worldwide (over 1,200 in the U.S.), including more than 200 added since 2016. This expansion would not be happening if they did not see a profitable future for their oil change business. (From Automotive-Fleet.com, 04/30/18)
Valvoline Quick Lube has 1,070 locations in the U.S. as of 2018. Their Growth Strategy Statement, published 09/17, plans for an additional 900-1,000 oil change locations to be developed over the next 5 years! (Info from Valvoline website, 05/25/18)
Of course, NOTHING beats the way InSite OilChange brings the service right to you! We don’t make you drive your car or truck (or fleet vehicles) to a lube location and then sit there and wait. InSite OilChange professionally performs oil changes for all kinds of vehicles right at your business or home location.
A bit more info about the future of oil changes…
Here’s a link to a report that Forbes magazine put together very recently:
A quote from the above report:
“By 2040, 55% of all new car sales and 33% of the global fleet will be electric.”
…IN OTHER WORDS, according to Forbes, as far ahead as 2040, 45% of new car sales will NOT be electric, and a whopping 66% of the global fleet will NOT be electric.
So there’s a snapshot. We’ve looked at other information, but all in all, we didn’t see a lot of great variation from what we’ve presented here. We are confident that the oil change industry will stay very, very busy for the next few decades. Add to that fact the trend of people and businesses demanding that more and more services be brought to them and you have a great opportunity for the InSite OilChange business model.
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